The Bonk's Mullet Advanced Stats Series - Part 2

Friday, November 1, 2013

By Luke Peristy


Depending on where you like to get your hockey news from, it's possible you may have heard of newfangled hockey stats like "Corsi" and "Fenwick". While these terms sound like the names of characters from Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Glendale City Council, it turns out that Corsi and Fenwick are actual people! In fact, Jim Corsi was a goaltending coach with the Buffalo Sabres, and Matt Fenwick is a blogger for the Flames. Around the internet, certain blogs maintain a sort of fanatical devotion to the Fenwick stat, and it's easy to see why; keyboard warriors have to stick together!

Anyway, Corsi and Fenwick are a way of expressing shot attempts on the net, and if you would like to read more, I recommend this excellent article.

BonksMullet.com has been working hard at developing some of our own #FancyStats as we're looking to get into the hockey analytics game as well. In Part 2 of our Advanced Stats Series, I'd like to introduce you to some of the new performance metrics we've developed. We haven't named these stats after ourselves because we're not that vain. Rather, as we've developed these stats, we've named them after the players that inspired them.


CONDRA - CONfidence of Deficient Result per Attempt


The CONDRA is the measure of confidence that a non-ideal play will occur, normalized by attempts on the net. In simpler terms, the closer a player's CONDRA is to 1, the lower the expectation that he will score. Let's take a look at a graph to see what I mean.
Click for a larger picture of the offensive impotence.

As you can see, Eric Gryba does not inspire a great deal of confidence from a goal-scoring perspective, but he's still considered slightly more likely to score than the entire 1992 Ottawa Senators team. Colin Greening, meanwhile, has scored a few goals in his time, so he has one of the lower CONDRAs on the team. Although Erik Condra and Matt Kassian do not inspire much confidence offensively, they still have a ways to go to reach the lofty peaks of Jonathan Cheechoo and Peter Regin. Cheechoo, it is said, couldn't bury the puck with a shovel during his time in Ottawa. However, Peter Regin remains the only player to have recorded a perfect 1.00 CONDRA over the course of a season.

KUBA% - Karlsson aUgmented Bank Account Percentage


The KUBA% is a very intuitive #FancyStat. Basically, it's the percentage of a player's contract which can be directly attributed to having played with Erik Karlsson in the past.

Filip better get Erik a Christmas card each year or something.

Patrick Wiercioch and Marc Methot will probably both benefit to some degree by playing with one of the best defencemen in the game today. Filip Kuba, on the other hand, is getting paid $4.2 million this year. Erik Karlsson should try to write off some of that salary as a gift when he does his taxes.

PAGEAU Index - Playoff Accomplishment GEnerAted eUphoria Index 


The PAGEAU Index is the measure of how much excitement a player's playoff exploits have caused, normalized to Jean-Gabriel Pageau's hat trick in Game 4 of the 2013 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. There's been some big moments in Sens playoff history. Let's see how they stack up.
Yes, even Joe Corvo made you happy once.

Obviously Daniel Alfredsson has done the most for the team during his time in Ottawa, but there's a couple other players who have scored big goals in their time. Kyle Turris, for example is well on his way to becoming a playoff legend. He's already the best Game 3 player Ottawa's ever had! Now I know you're all wondering just how far down does that line for Patrick Lalime go? Well...

He's got a fantastic career playoff GAA, though.

Yeah, that seems about right.

NEIL - Nebulous Exploits of Implied Leadership


The NEIL measures the number of acts committed by a player which arguably show leadership qualities, but could also be considered irresponsible and detrimental to the team. The leadership core of the Ottawa Senators has always seemed pretty solid, but if that's true, WHY DO THEY ALWAYS LEAVE, DANIEL?!?!

*Takes a deep breath*

Sorry, I just really needed to get some of that out. Anyway, let's look at the graph.

Chris Phillips: Leader.


Now I know this hasn't been always popular to point out, but don't you think Daniel Alfredsson occasionally did things that seemed a little odd? That said, I'm gonna give anyone who does this a free pass for life. Chris Neil is also known for getting in fights of dubious effectiveness, although he doesn't always limit his opponents to players on the other team. However, it's former head coach Cory Clouston who dominates this stat. Whether it's his surly demeanor, or his desperate attempts to play eight Senators at a time during line changes, or those times he threw his goalies under the bus so hard, it injured Pascal Leclaire AND Dominik Hasek retroactively, Clouston always seemed to be doing the wrong thing for the right reasons. Also, he wore more purple than Marie Schrader from Breaking Bad, so there's that, too.

JOE - Journalist-Originated Enmity


The JOE is a measure of how much animosity towards a player has been engendered by the local sports media. This graph could have a lot of players on it, but let's take a look at a select few.

Media types are very clear about what they hate the most.


Obviously, there's some big names on the list of players who have been given a hard time by the Ottawa media, but it all pales in comparison to the amount of hate and anguish directed at the location of Canadian Tire Place.

So there you have it: Alexei Yashin will not be the all-time greatest villain in Senators history until the Senators get a downtown arena. You heard it here first!